21 November 2010

When would asset bubbles in Emerging Market "Burst"?

Do you discounted the possibilities of asset bubbles in Emerging Market?

Even though our governments, including China, saying that asset bubbles is under-controlled for almost one year now, yet, investors are not comfortable with the record breaking prices.

Investors are encountering high prices in properties, commodities, resources, and of course, shares market in emerging markets. People are investing, buying, spending, and borrowing to an extent that would caused asset bubbles in various sectors.
Return, the only thing in mind...
Meanwhile, investors are chasing for returns to beat the market at large, and to avoid being left behind. This "Kiasu" behavior are only pouring oils on fire. Yet, returns is the only thing in mind, and those "kiasu" investors are winning the game to date. For those who does not participate in the game were blaming them for causing the high property prices, undermining their affordability to own a house.
When did the bubbles started?
In fact, the asset bubbles was started end of last year. And, the bad news is, the bubbles are growing non-stop until today. People are blindly pouring oils (until crude oil reaches USD87 per barrel lately), although the fire is big enough to swallow a bungalow.
When would it stops?

Oh... To answer it, we have a two-sided views...
One, the asset bubble will anyway stop one day
Two, it will stop when it "burst"
All will come to an end by following the sequence below:
- when US and Europe recover from their painful crisis,
- when investors found that US and Europe can give them better return,
- when "kiasu" attitude infecting US and Europe,
- when oil prices is too pricey to ignite the fires (commodities will come down),
- when speculative capital flow out of emerging markets,

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