Are you bored of the recent elections hoo-haa ? It's all coming from either party from different side, some NGOs, and some political related persons. How about foreigners? What are they thinking about our Malaysia General Election? Here you go...
In this note, Morgan Stanley outline the 5 things they think investors need to know regarding Malaysia elections:
- What's upcoming? Setting the context
The 13th General Elections are due to be held very soon in Malayia. Parliament needs to be dissolved no later than April 2013, and elections need to be held no later than 60 days from date of its dissolution.
- Which are the key states to monitor?
They are Kedah, Penang, Selangor, Perak, Johor, Sabah and Sarawak. - Election scenarios and macro implications
BN Parliamentary seat share of > 63% would be seen as a positive surprise for investors. BN Parliamentary seat share of < mid 50% would be seen as a negative risk event by investors and could have implications for leadership and government stability. The political landscape will determine momentum of reform agenda. - Policy comparison: Pakatan Rakyat (PR) vs Barisan Nasional (BN)
The broad economic thrust of PR policy is fairly similar to that of BN. However, PR campaign proposals have a more leftist slant and also focus on policy devolvement to state governments, more geographically balanced economic development, and strengthening of decentralization in Sabah and Sarawak. - What to expect in UMNO Party elections?UMNO elections have to be held by Jun-2013. The president of UNMO is historically the prime minister, and hence, this will determine whether there is leadership stability. Forthcoming elections will take place amid constitutional amendments which makes the process more democratic.
* NO abusive comments were allowed. Thanks.
Source: Morgan Stanley research report dated 18th Feb 2013
BN may have a land slide win in the coming GE ,if the Chinese vote remain unchanged,just like in 2008(28-30%for the BN. 10% returns of Malay and Indian votes are good enough for BN to regain 2/3majority. Following the Sulu intrusion in Sabah,patriotic sentiments are peaking up which are favorable for the BN .and then internal fighting in the DAP and between parties are heating up because interest conflicts cronies and and the newly emergence business group(like what happen in Penang)which will have a negative impact on the performance of PR in the election. Who are the people behind the intrusion in Sabah,this is a big question. Anwar has promised to give Sabah autonomy status, Tun Mahathir says this is highly irresponsible and may create trouble for the country,you can imagine what the bumi think about it.?
ReplyDeleteIf BN Parliamentary seat share of < mid 50%, negative risk only apply on existing investors that are heavily rely on the political policy. Even this may be the short term of own imagination's risk, as long nation set on the right economy track, investors will return in no time.
ReplyDeleteIf the klci tumbles by 300-500 points following the G.E ,so margin call will come in 3 days later, there is another round of
ReplyDeletesharp fall, the whole market collapse, suddenly we go back to the situation in 1997 or 1980s , country has fallen into recession, those who live in urban area are hard hit, small business are closing one after another…people start selling properties and valuables.its
not possible to restore the economy and the market sentiments in few month time…may not be restored at all