20 April 2009

Starting of a Bull-Run ?

For the past few weeks, Equities Market around the world had rally 20% in average.
Will it be sustainable?
Question in most of the investor's mind could be:
  1. Was Recession Ending?
  2. Should I Accumulate or Take-profit now?
  3. Then, what should I do instead?

And, I would say that: "Watch-out for the next few weeks!!!"
Reasons:

  1. Beware of Corporate Earnings. (Q1) / (FY08)
    - further write-down from banks/financial institutions
    - lower sales volume (etc. electronics, automobile, housing...)
  2. Beware of Deflation
    - high base effect set in 2008
    - lower CPI due to lower oil, commodities prices
    - deflation could happened in Q2/Q3 2009
  3. Beware of GDP contraction
    - not only no GROWTH, but Contraction "Again"

Anyway, Do Not be so disappointed with the facts.

The good news is this could be the last correction before pathing the way for recovery.

In other meaning, this could be the last chance for investor to accumulate shares at the most attractive price.

1 comment:

  1. Chelsea Chelsea :)Thursday, April 23, 2009

    Why would you think this is the last correction? The banks are still in a very bad situation and we still do not know how much bad debts will be written off. Plus they have not found a solution to the financial crisis, whether to introduce new regulation/system into the banking system, and if they do how would it effect us?

    ReplyDelete

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