21 August 2011

Oil & Gas: Why Malaysia is different? (21 Aug 2011)

With oil prices hovering around USD80-85 per barrel currently, what is the outlook for Malaysia oil & gas (O&G) industry? Dubbed as "Black Gold", crude oil is one of investors favorite asset classes, which is highly volatile. Here, we examined the implications of lower oil prices, current scenario of the industry, and sustainability of oil price going forward. Feel free to share this out via our Facebook page (www.facebook.com/financemalaysia).


What drags down oil prices?
As most of you already know, US and Europe is main culprit for the sliding oil prices. High debt issues still lingering the global economy since 2008 global financial crisis. As such, the potential slowdown in the global economy as per investors perception, droves oil prices lower to current level.

What is the implications?
Actually, the correction of oil prices is driven by sentiment of traders, whom thinking that the demand is going ton be weak soon. What would you do if you're a CEO of Shell? Cutting back on oil exploration spending, re-evaluating the feasibility of planned projects, or even delaying some of them. At worst, you already seen it during 2008 financial crisis, where KNM battling for survival when a few of its clients delaying projects.

Oil prices outlook?
We believe the price of crude oil will trend lower in tandem with easing demand as industrial activities slow down. OSK had revising downwards their oil price forecasts for FY11 and FY12 to USD85-95/barrel and USD80-90/barrel respectively. Immediate resistance at USD90/barrel, while support at USD70/barrel.

Why Malaysia is different?
Unlike other countries, local O&G players are more dependent on our big boss - Petronas. Why? Because, Petronas is the one who is feeding the local players by dishing out marginal oil fields contracts and higher capex committed for next 10 years. No matter how global oil prices trend, Petronas is the growth engine of local players.

Target Price by OSK Research dated 19 Aug 2011

Buy or Sell?
Based on our reasons given above, we should Buy those companies which have strong relationship with Petronas (higher chances of getting contracts) and Sell those companies with excessive foreign contracts. This assumption is correct if oil prices are trending lower. As such, I picks Kencana (strong relationship and earnings) and Dialog (sound business with recurring income).

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