17 September 2009

2010 catalyst - Inflation?

Equity market started it's Bull-run since March 2009 until now. This has caught many of people's attentions, also, caught many investors waiting for a drop for months.

Missed the V-shaped rebound?
Or, W-shaped recovery coming?

None of us know the exact answer of it. But, one thing is for sure -- market is recovering slowly.
As an investor, leaving the market is a sure WRONG strategy. Now is the consequences of it. Even Warren Buffet didn't exit his investment totally, instead, slowly increasing his equity exposure to those "jewels" he selected carefully.

Anyway, Inflation most probably will rose next year due to:

1. Weakening USD
US undeniably was recovering from "Illness" now, however, the treatment bills (budget deficit) can't settle overnight. This have been putting pressure on USD. And, bear in mind many commodities are trade in USD too.

2. Sudden surge of demand for commodities
Yes, demand is weak now. But, it doesn't mean that it will be the same when all the governments' projects started to take effect. This sudden demand may last for few months only, but, it could spike up the prices and have a say on inflation rate.

3. Speculation
Whenever we talk about resources, speculators would come into picture to take advantage of it. That's why it was so volatile each time. And, I believe this time will be the same too. Maybe the speculators is OURs this time. We can't change the herd-mentality all this while, right?

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