Budget 2024: Winners and Losers

In the face of global uncertainties, the slightly expansionary Budget 2024 attempts to balance economic growth, fiscal discipline, sustainability and the rakyat’s well-being.

However, most analysts are largely “neutral” about the effect on the local equity market. We have compiled some of the very brief summaries from various analysts' reports for your quick reference here.

CGS-CIMB:

• Budget 2024 was balanced, driving through the fiscal consolidation agenda despite sizeable allocations for development.
• Moving to a targeted subsidy regime (and re-directing savings to lower-income groups) is a medium-term positive.
• There were no significant losers from the budget.
• Domestic-driven sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Brewers (no news is good news), Construction, Real Estate, Power, Auto, and Banks should benefit from the budget, albeit there could be a slight impact on demand for selected areas due to the increase in services and sugar taxes.

AHAM Capital:

• Healthcare, construction, renewables, and consumer sectors as potential winners of the recently tabled Budget 2024.
• For the construction sector, particularly in East Malaysia such as the Sabah Pan Borneo project and the Sarawak-Sabah Link Road project Phase 2.
• The renewables sector – such as solar energy firms – will benefit from the government’s commitment to its energy transition agenda via the National Energy Transition Roadmap.
• Domestic consumer spending to strengthen following the continuation of cash transfer programmes, notably the Rahmah Cash Aid programme with a budget allocation of RM10 billion.
• Overall, AHAM Capital is neutral on Budget 2024 due to the lack of major tax reforms.

TA Research:

• Budget 2024 is neutral on the construction sector, noting there were no major surprises except the reinstatement of the five LRT3 stations that were previously cancelled.
• The main beneficiaries were the automotive, consumer, property, technology, utility, and oil and gas sectors
• Meanwhile, the financial and gaming sectors were the main losers due to the increase in service tax from 6% to 8%.

PublicInvest Research:

• main winners were the construction sector, thanks to the various infrastructure projects and record-high allocation for development expenditure, and
• the power sector due to the incentives to stimulate clean energy development.

PhilipCapital Research:

• Higher development expenditure with the reinstatement of five LRT stations was a pleasant surprise.
• Overweight on sectors such as:
• Construction (Gamuda, Kerjaya Prospek – higher allocation spillover),
• EMS (NationGate – trade diversion beneficiary backed by structural growth themes), and
• O&G (Dayang – Petronas lower dividend commitment supportive of higher capex spending and activities).

Maybank Investment Bank:

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