In tandem with the moderating economic growth trend, corporate earnings remained weak in 4Q 2011. Of the 113 reported earnings that we cover, 55 of the results (48.7% of the total) were within our expectations, 33 below projections (29.2% of the total) and 25 above forecasts (22.1%) (see Table 1). Against the consensus numbers, 44.2% of the reported earnings were within expectations, 38.1% below and 17.7% above projections (see Table 2). Sequentially, net EPS for the FBM KLCI stocks under our coverage weakened back to +1.7% qoq and +2.8% yoy in the 4Q, from +8.9% qoq and +12.4% yoy in the previous quarter (see Chart 1).
However, the downgrade to upgrade ratio has improved significantly to 1.07 times, from 1.65 times in the previous quarter. Overall, 2011 has been a year where Corporate Malaysia suffered from slowing sales and falling utilisation rates. This, coupled with the trend of higher costs, resulted in falling margins for many companies under our coverage. Consequently, normalised net EPS growth for the FBM KLCI stocks under our coverage slowed sharply from 20.9% in 2010 to +4.7% in 2011. The sharp slowdown in EPS growth, however, partly reflected the higher base effect as well as the plunge in Tenaga’s earnings arising from the gas curtailment issue. Excluding Tenaga, our 2011’s normalised net EPS for the FBM KLCI stocks has slowed down less significantly to +10.1%, from +21.2% in 2010.
Businesses Turning More Upbeat